When the end came, it came with astonishing swiftness.  Taliban soldiers finally withdrew from Kandahar, their last bastion of power, after Mullah Muhammed Omar struck a deal with the US-backed former mujahideen commanders providing him safe passage and amnesty for his supporters.  After weeks of punishing strikes by US jets, the Taliban’s spiritual leader finally surrendered Kandahar saying he wanted to avoid civilian casualties.  The battle for Kandahar was over without much fighting and with that came the end of the seven-year long rule of the Islamic militia.  The city was back to pre-Taliban chaos and anarchy as rival commanders fought to assert their power.  Though the Taliban are finished in all but name, mystery surrounds the whereabouts of Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden, the two main targets of the US forces.

            Taliban rule is over but peace remains elusive in Afghanistan.  The old warlords are back carving out their fiefdoms.  The UN-brokered deal has put in place a post-Taliban government in Kabul, but many observers are sceptical about its effectiveness in bringing  peace to war-ravaged Afghanistan.  The new government, which many leaders believe is dominated by the minority Tajik group, has sharpened the ethnic division in Afghanistan.  Although Hamid Karzai’s appointment as the head of the interim administration is aimed at removing the fears of the Pashtuns of domination by minority ethnic groups, he does not have any influence beyond his tribe in Kandahar.  With the reemergence of the discredited warlords, who were swept aside by the Taliban movement, Afghanistan is moving towards  further fragmentation.  Meanwhile, the prospect of the long-term presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan may further fuel regional tension.

            Afghanistan’s fragile power-sharing  deal received a serious blow, just a day after the historic accord for a broadbased political setup was signed, as General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the powerful  Uzbek warlord, threatened to boycott the new interim administration.  General Dostum, whose forces dominate parts of northwest Afghanistan including the strategic town of Mazar-i-Sharif, alleged that his group was not given a fair share in the interim power arrangement.  He was holding out for the foreign ministry for his Jumash-i-Islami faction, but was given the agriculture, mining and industry portfolios.  “We announce our boycott of this government and will not go to Kabul until there is a proper government in place,” said General Dostum.  The Uzbek warlord, whose forces played a key role in routing the Taliban, described the Bonn accord as “humiliating” and declared he would deny officials of the new government access to the rich north, where Afghanistan’s oil and gas resources are located.

            The UN-brokered interim government plan has threatened the unity of the fractious Northern Alliance as key posts went to the Jamiat-i-Islami party of former president, Burhanuddin Rabbani.  The predominantly Tajik ethnic group – one of the five factions that make up the alliance – emerged as the real winner during the nine days and nights of hard and intense bargaining.

             Most political observers agree that the fate of the new setup  may depend more on those who were left out rather than those who were included.  Absent from the interim setup are key figures in the Northern Alliance who maintain sizable armed forces – but are not from Jamiat-i-Islami party.  Ismail Khan, who rules the western city of Herat, is among those who were ignored.  The Iranian-backed Shia Hezb-i-Wahadat, which dominates the central region of Bamiyan and has a strong presence in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan, is also unhappy with the deal.

            While the alliance has pledged to share power, it saved the top cabinet posts – interior, defense and foreign affairs – for the Tajik triumvirate which has provoked tension in other ethnic groups, especially the Pashtuns.  Also missing is Haji Abdul Qadir, an ethnic Pashtun from eastern Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province.

            Although, Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun, was chosen to head the administration, many leaders fear a domination of ethnic minority groups.  Sayed Ahmed Gailani, an influential Pashtun leader from Kandahar whose faction participated in the Bonn talks, declared the new administration as “imbalanced.”  He said the accord had ignored  former mujahideen leaders who fought against the Soviet forces.  “It has brought to power the same leaders who were responsible for the chaos and lawlessness in the past,” said Gailani clearly referring to Northern Alliance leaders.  The Pashtun leader who supports the exiled Afghan king, Zahir Shah, however, hoped that the ‘Loya Jirga’ (grand assembly) scheduled to meet in six months may help install a “more representative administration.”

           The reemergence of factional conflict could present serious  problems for the interim government on key issues like the role of foreign peacekeepers, who many Afghans believe are necessary to restore law and order and prevent a repeat of interline fighting.  Disarming the warlords and bringing their private armies under a central government control are necessary steps to restore order.  However, since the Tajik group runs the interior and defense posts, other factions such as those loyal to Dostum, Ismail Khan and Hezb-i-Wahadat may be reluctant to hand over weapons to forces they consider as simply just another private army.

           With the Taliban out of the way, the United States is focusing on its remaining objective of apprehending bin Laden.  Its forces are now closing in on the Tora Bora cave complex near Jalalabad where the suspected terrorist is believed to be hiding.  Tribal commanders, mindful of the 25-million-dollar reward, are helping the American forces in hunting him.  But there are increasing fears that he might have already fled Afghanistan.

           Pakistan has reinforced its troops along the treacherous mountainous routes linking the extensive cave complex of Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan to prevent Osama bin Laden and other members of Al Qaeda entering Pakistan.  The mountain stronghold where bin Laden is believed to be hiding has two exit points into Pakistan’s Khyber and Waziristan tribal areas which are likely to be used by the hunted terrorists as escape routes.

        Tora Bora in southern Nangarhar province is connected to Pakistan through rough mountain trails only accessible by foot or on  mules.  The trailhead to Tora Bora connects with a network of smugglers’ routes leading to mountain passes in the Frontier province.  The Spinger mountain range which starts from Terah valley, the wildest of Pakistan’s wild tribal region, leads to the Tora Bora mountain some 35 kilometers south west of Jalalabad.  The other end meets Teri Mengal in the south Waziristan tribal area.  The mountain fortress of Tora Bora consist of numerous caves carved into the rock face and sits at a height of almost 13,000 feet.

        Tora Bora was a major mujahideen base and remained a thorn in the side of the Soviet forces.  Secreted between well fortified ridges and seemingly impregnable, it was the perfect launching-pad for raids and a safe haven for the mujahideen.  In their 10-year war against the rebels in Afghanistan, the Russians were never able to strike a serious blow on Tora Bora.  “The place seemed as enduring as the rock from which it was carved.  It is hardly surprising that it  was the main fortress of the Afghan resistance,” said a journalist.  With thousands of Arab Islamic warriors making it their hideout, Tora Bora is now reportedly much larger and better equipped than ever.  A labyrinth of caves and tunnels now has electricity generated from the fast running mountain stream.

        Senior Pakistani  military government officials fear that bin Laden’s men may try to setup their base in Pakistan’s lawless tribal region.  President General Pervez Musharraf earlier this week said there were chances that bin Laden may try to cross the border into Pakistan.  Besides sealing its border with the cooperation of tribal leaders, Pakistan has launched a hunt of its own for Al Qaeda leaders by sending its intelligence operatives inside Afghanistan.  Upon receiving information that bin Laden had moved close to Pakistan’s border, Pakistani military intelligence officials said their agents have entered Afghanistan to track bin Laden and frustrate Al Qaeda’s search for a new base in Pakistan.

         Western intelligence officials, however, fear that middle ranking officials of Inter Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s premier spy agency, may not fully cooperate with General Musharraf’s anti-bin Laden campaign.  Most of them have been working closely with the Taliban regime which was until recently backed by Islamabad.  General Musharraf last month removed several top army generals, including the powerful ISI chief General Mahmood Ahmed, who were opposed to the shift in Pakistan’s long standing pro-Taliban policy.  However the middle and lower ranks of the ISI still host officers who may have their own agenda and may not fully implement orders from the top.

          Military officials have  refuted the report, but privately they admit the presence of extremist elements within army ranks.  The cabinet this week endorsed General Musharraf’s decision to launch a  crackdown on Islamic extremists and according to sources the crackdown may also be extended to the army and the civil servants.  Some reports suggest that several retired army soldiers had joined the Taliban in fighting against the US-led coalition forces.  Many of them were among those who were trapped in Kunduz and Pakistani aircraft reportedly flew to the besieged northern Afghan city  to rescue some of them.

          According to reports, many Taliban leaders have either come to Pakistan or fled into the mountains and are closely monitoring the situation.  Some Taliban leaders now in Pakistan are trying to coordinate with some of the former Afghan mujahideen leaders to form a greater Pashtun alliance to block the Northern Alliance-dominated interim regime.  It is not surprising that the Taliban handed over the eastern Afghan province to regional Pashtun commanders without a fight.  In return, Taliban officials and soldiers were given a safe passage and according to reports a large number of them are still active in their areas.  There is also a move from some moderate Taliban leaders to create a new broad-based Pashtun group to undermine the interim arrangement and they are confident of regaining control, at least in southern and eastern Afghanistan, because of the infighting among the warlords.

        Though the Taliban have been routed, the situation in Afghanistan remains as volatile as ever and there is still a long way to go in restoring peace to this fractious country.