Hamid Karzai’s nomination as head of Afghanistan’s new interim administration came as a consolation to the country’s Pashtun majority, who had feared total domination by minority ethnic groups in the post-Taliban political setup in Kabul.  Many Afghans, however, are sceptical of the ability of this westernised tribesman from the Taliban heartland of Kandahar to muster the support of other powerful tribes, particularly in eastern Afghanistan.

            A former deputy foreign minister, Mr. Karzai is seen by many as a political “lightweight,” whose leadership capacity remains untested.  With no strong political base of his own, he is likely to be overshadowed by the more powerful Northern Alliance ministers.  Karzai does not wield any influence beyond his own tribe in Kandahar and is completely unknown in northern and western Afghanistan, which is populated by the minority Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.  It is clear that he was chosen as a token Pashtun head of the new government, while the real power will lie with those leaders who already control the administration in Kabul.

            Karzai is, however, a less controversial figure than any other Pashtun leader because he was never involved in the Afghan factional battle.  An ardent supporter of the former Afghan king, Zahir Shah, Karzai’s success will depend on how he deals with powerful regional leaders like General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Uzbek warlord who controls Mazar-i-Sharif and other north-western provinces, and Ismail Khan, the governor of the western Herat province.  Both Dostum and Ismail Khan are currently busy consolidating their positions in their respective strongholds, but a conflict is likely to emerge if the new central government tries to assert its authority.  Similarly, the Iranian-backed Shia Hizbe- Wahadat, which controls the central Bamiyan province, will not be comfortable with the western-backed administration in Kabul.

            Karzai, the 44-year-old chief of the  Popalzai tribe, a branch of Afghanistan’s most powerful Durrani Pashtun tribe, shot to prominence on the Afghan political scene last month when he went inside Afghanistan’s southern Uruzgan province to lead an armed tribal uprising against the Taliban regime.  Karzai, who was educated abroad and has lived in the United States, became the deputy foreign minister in the first post-Communist mujahideen government, headed by Sibghatullah Mujaddedi in 1992.  He stayed on in Burhanuddin Rabbani’s government until he was forced to quit in 1994 because of factional fighting.

            During his brief stint in government, Karzai had little to show for his leadership capability.  According to reports, he had to bring in armed tribesmen from his home province of Kandahar to ensure his own security as the fighting among the coalition partners plunged the country into a long civil war that killed more than 50,000 people.  He did not even have transport available to take him out of Kabul when he left Rabbani’s cabinet and was rescued by a UN vehicle.

            Though the highly disillusioned Karzai intitially supported the Taliban, his flirtation was short-lived and he parted ways with the harsh Islamic militia, accusing them of  being manipulated  by neighbouring Pakistan.  Karzai then disappeared into oblivion for many years before resurfacing on the scene again following the US-led military strikes on Afghanistan.  A fierce Afghan nationalist, Karzai has vehemently opposed the meddling of neighbouring countries in Afghanistan’s tumultuous political scene.  He has specifically been critical of Pakistan, with whom he has had an ambivalent relationship.  While Pakistan allowed Karzai to maintain his headquarters in Balochistan, the two often clashed over Pakistan’s support for the Taliban regime.

            The Bonn Agreement’s choice of Karzai as head of the interim administration is supported by Pakistan which had been demanding a larger share for the Pashtuns in the post-Taliban government.  It is, however, not clear whether the Pashtun warlords, who now control various provinces in eastern Afghanistan, will support the political setup which is largely dominated by the Northern Alliance.  The Pashtun tribal division may also create problems for the new Afghan leader.  While Karzai belongs to the southern Durrani tribe, eastern Afghanistan is largely dominated by its traditional rival, the Ghilzai tribe.  It is highly unlikely that Karzai will be successful in rallying the support of the eastern tribal chiefs.  The appointment of Hedayat Amin Arsala, a Pashtun from eastern Afghanistan, however, may help in winning the support of the eastern tribes.  A royalist, Mr. Arsala has worked for more than 18 years with the World Bank.  He was the special emissary of King Zahir Shah, and his tribe wields formidable influence in Pashtun areas.