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Although Taliban rule is over in Afghanistan and the US and
Afghan forces are hounding their leaders and key figures round the
clock, there are still a considerable number of hardcore Taliban
in the southern provinces with large quantities of arms and ammunition including Stinger missiles that
may pose a threat to those who are presently in the saddle.
The
US forces stationed at Kandahar and the new Afghan administration in these
provinces are well aware of their presence and are continuing their efforts to
win over the tribal elders who were staunch supporters of the Taliban during
their six-year rule.
According
to a conservative assessment by the government, there are over 10,000 Taliban
fighters in the provinces of Kandahar, Urzugan, Zabul, Helmand, Ghazni and
Nimroz and in some parts of Farah and Herat who can rise in revolt when a call
comes from their leaders. The number of
Taliban supporters is estimated at many times that.
Many
Taliban have simply switched their allegiance from Mullah Omar to Mulla Naqib’s nominee, Corps Commander Khan Mohammad. Mullah Naqib, who was a Corps Commander
during the days of the mujahideen government, later extended his full support
to the Taliban when they rose to power and developed a close relationship with
Mullah Omar.
Mullah
Naqib is the man who brokered the deal between Hamid Karzai and Omar before the
latter disappeared from Kandahar with hundreds of his men. However, Naqib was handed over control of
Kandahar along with over 3000 Taliban fighters, hundreds of vehicles and all
the military hardware of the cantonment.
Governor
Kandahar Mohammad Shafiq Sherzai, alias Gul Agha, whose forces succeeded in
capturing towns and strategic points from Takht-e-Pul to Kandahar airport in
the wake of intense US bombing, was critical of this deal and opposed the
handing over of Kandahar to his one-time arch rival, Mullah Naqib. There was
also a severe clash between Mullah Naqib’s and Sherzai’s men when the former
forcibly entered the city and captured the governor’s house. Later, Hamid Karzai, as head-elect of the
interim government, brought about a reconciliation between the two. Under the
settlement, Sherzai was accepted as governor while the office of corps
commander, the number two slot, was given to Mullah Naqibullah who nominated
his brother-in-law, Khan Mohammad to the post.
Since
then there has been tension between the governor and his
second-in-command. Both men are
uneducated, but Sherzai communicates with the Americans through his two English
speaking cousins, Engineer Yousaf Pashtun and Khalid Pashtun.
The
Kandahar region is now in the process of building an army of over 20,000 men
that may include a sizeable number of Taliban, although the government’s edict
enforcing the trimming of beards may keep some of them out.
There
are reports that in Ghazni alone, north of Kandahar, there are hundreds of
vehicles and tanks, besides hundreds of Taliban leaders and fighters under the
protection of tribal elders. An equal
number are present in the Baghran mountains to the north in Helmand province
where Americans and Afghan forces tried in vain to track down Mullah Omar and
his men.
In
Ghazni, the government is reported to be in close contact with tribal leaders
to persuade them to surrender the Taliban leaders along with tanks and
vehicles. In return, the elders demand financial benefits for themselves and
amnesty for the Taliban leaders.
Rais
Abdul Wahid, a powerful warlord in Baghran, a Tora Bora like mountainous area,
agreed to cooperate in the search in the wake of threats by US forces to
bombard the area. The search met with
no success and some people believe Rais may have delayed it to give Mullah Omar
enough time to get away.
Many Taliban have now resumed their religious studies in
Afghanistan and Pakistan or resumed their duties as pesh imams or
muezzins in the mosques in both countries. Some have gone back to their villages and are
biding their time. Many
of them roam the streets of Kandahar in the same dress and turban
while some have changed their garb.
“ The Taliban exist everywhere.
They cannot be separated from Pashtun culture.
It is not necessary that they rise under the same name, but
they could launch another movement on the same lines,” said Talib
Qari Nooruddin, who recently got the job of pesh imam in the city
of Kandahar.
Hundreds
of people, many of whom were Taliban, protested in front of the governor’s
house against the government’s decision to cut off food and water to the Arab
fighters entrenched in Mir Wais hospital.
When
Governor Gul Agha invited citizens’ suggestions regarding the government’s day
to day affairs, very few people showed up.
Later, in order to mobilise public opinion for holding a Loya Jirga, the
government arranged a public meeting and repeatedly requested the public to
attend it, but its pleas went unheeded, as not more than 5000 people, 3000 of
whom were primary school children showed up.
Khalid Pashtun, chief advisor to Governor Sherzai had claimed a day
earlier that he expected at least 20,000 people to attend the meeting and
demonstrate their support for government
policies and the current political process.
In
Kandahar many believe that the law and order established by the Taliban will be
difficult for the warlords to restore, even with US support, and that is one
reason why public support is not forthcoming.
There
are clear differences between two local forces, one loyal to Governor Sherzai
and the other to Corps Commander Khan Mohammad in Kandahar. Khan Mohammad’s men were deployed at the Mir
Wais Hospital, guarding the armed Arab fighters who had demanded safe passage. When the Americans decided to conduct a
commando operation against the Arabs, they asked these soldiers to leave and
then used Governor Sherzai’s forces to launch an attack against the Arabs. The visible tussle between the two is
hindering US efforts to win over tribal leaders by all means at its command.
Haji
Bashar Noorzai is one of the leaders who surrendered along with Taliban
vehicles and around 1200 weapons of all types in return for assurances of
amnesty. Noorzai recently hosted a
lunch for Governor Sherzai and a senior US military official at Maywand, 40
kilometres west of Kandahar city.
Bashar, one of the biggest opium tycoons of Afghanistan, was one of two
tribal leaders of Kandahar who were to be handed over control of the province
by Mullah Omar before his departure. Americans are said to have rewarded Bashar
in cash for changing sides and expect him to help in the hunt for Osama, Mullah
Omar and other Taliban leaders.
Another
important tribal warlord, Mullah Salam Rocketti of Zabul surrendered on the
same conditions. Pir Ismail Gillani, a
spiritual leader in Kandahar, played the main role in brokering this deal.
There
are visible differences between the Kandahar and Kabul governments, as the
former criticise Hamid Karzai for not exerting effective control over the
provincial administrative set-ups, particularly in Herat province. Governor Herat, Tooran Ismail, has been
accused of receiving arms and ammunition from neighbouring Iran and developing
friendly relations with its government without the consent of Kabul.
Hamid Karzai, who lacks clout and influence
among the tribal elders, has yet to consolidate his
position and has also been accused of trying to clear
the path to power for his brothers and uncles in the
upcoming set-up in Kandahar by exploiting his close
relationship with ex-monarch Zahir Shah.
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