Back in the mid ’90s, renowned defence analysts predicted the initiation of an arms race in South Asia in the event of the introduction of anti-tactical missile defence systems: “One that could derail America’s nonproliferation policy in the region and spark a full-fledged nuclear and missile arms race.”

            At the time there was no clear evidence of anti-ballistic missile politics making its advent in the region and all the analysts could point out were some rudimentary efforts on the part of India to achieve anti-ballistic missile capability.  While there has been no change in technology, two events in May altered the regional political outlook with regard to the National Missile Defence (NMD) scenario. First, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage visited New Delhi as part of his Asian tour to lobby for the NMD system. Reportedly, India has supported the programme.  According to analysts, it expects to benefit from the US nuclear defence shield as envisaged by the NMD. In the same vein, Indian newspapers are also predicting that the Bush Administration will lift the remaining sanctions that were put in place in the wake of the 1998 nuclear explosions. Perhaps these developments herald the advent of NMD politics in South Asia.

            At about the same time, Chinese and Pakistani leaders were discussing the NMD issue in Islamabad.  The spokeswoman for the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs, while briefing newsmen at the conclusion of the meeting said that the issue was discussed in the meeting between the two leaders. Later, General Pervez Musharraf declared, “we are against any action that re-initiates a nuclear and missile race in the region.”

            Most observers see Pakistan’s position on the NMD as a cautious expression of opposition to US plans as it wants to avoid  being seen as aligned to any particular bloc in world politics.  While explaining Pakistan’s position on the NMD, Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar said that the recent visit of Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji was not conceived in the context of concerns over the stability of  the world order. Sattar also said that the Chief Executive’s statement was not a comment on recent events.  “General Musharraf’s remarks were about general principles regarding ballistic missile defence systems and it was a reiteration of the traditional stance.”

            While addressing the Conference on Disarmament (CD) earlier this year, a senior Pakistani official said in Geneva that the National Missile Defence will have implications for global stability and for other countries and regions.

            “We, therefore, believe that before irrevocable decisions are taken and actions initiated, it would be best to hold a thorough and inclusive debate on the rationale and the consequences of the deployment of Ballistic Missile Defences, both at the strategic and at the regional levels,” said the senior official “If one or more states decide to create ‘shields’ against ballistic missiles to protect their national territory, or that of their allies and clients, other states are likely to respond by improving and adding to their ‘lances.’”

            While Pakistan has criticised the NMD at international disarmament forums, the present reluctance of its foreign policy establishment to vehemently express its opposition to US plans speaks volumes about its desire not to be seen as part of any anti-American bloc.

            All this was followed by news reports in the local press that a senior US official is due to visit Islamabad to discuss the NMD issue with the Pakistani leadership. However, nobody is ready to officially own these reports and both sides have denied the veracity of the news items. However, officials do see the possibility of Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar discussing the issue with his US counterpart Colin Powell in June, during his visit to Washington.

            Pakistan has, however, taken exception to the assertion of US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, in which he dubbed Pakistan an irresponsible state. Officials said Pakistan lodged a protest with the State Department on this.  Later, the US spokesman clarified that Armitage didn’t call Pakistan a rogue state, but expressed concern over nuclear proliferation in Pakistan.

            There is a move to comprehensively discuss the issues of missile proliferation and anti-ballistic missile defence systems at the Conference on Disarmament. Pakistan has reportedly backed this move as, in its view, restricted forums, like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) “which operate on the basis of a selective and, therefore, a discriminatory approach, are unlikely to succeed in promoting comprehensive and durable solutions to the dangers that are posed by the growing role of missiles in national defence strategies of both the major powers and others.”