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You
could call it the quiet before the storm, this eerie pre-poll silence
that seems to have descended over India. Back-channel negotiations
are still the order of the day, as major political parties test
permutations and combinations over innumerable cups of chai and
other liquids, with forgotten enemies and future friends. In these
last, feverish days before the Election Commission announces a timeline
for India's most exhaustive spectacle, most likely to take place
over three to four phases in April-May, the power-brokers are all
over the place. Only, at least for now, they're mostly keeping their
mouths shut.
Point
is, everyone knows that the election is going to be fought between
the charismatic Atal Behari Vajpayee and the charming but reclusive
Sonia Gandhi. What everyone's dying to know is whether the newest
Gandhi generation, Priyanka, Rahul and Feroze Varun, are going to
electrify what promises to be an otherwise ponderous poll given
to much electoral arithmetic, into a charged, nail-biting tamasha
that is leavened with the tragi-comedy of the past-present.
As the Great Indian Elections prepare, then, to unspool for
the 14th time, it's almost clear that Priyanka and Rahul, the children
of Sonia Gandhi, will not contest the fray - unlike their first
cousin, Varun, who made the front pages a fortnight ago by joining
the BJP along with his mother, Maneka Gandhi. On the other hand,
both Priyanka and Rahul are likely to campaign for their mother
as well as other Congress candidates, against the BJP. Even if Priyanka
- acknowledged by many an old-timer, to have a compelling likeness
to her larger-than-life grandmother, Indira Gandhi - campaigns for
the Congress in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar,
she may well succeed in making many a corrupted political operator
in the opposition lose his or her deposit.
For
proof, just ask Arun Nehru, Rajiv Gandhi's one-time close friend
and confidant, who was standing for election from Amethi on a BJP
ticket during the 1998 elections and was clearly confident of winning
- until Priyanka stepped in. Nehru, she thundered at street-corner
speeches, was like Brutus - he had stabbed her father in the back.
Unhone mere baap ke peeth mein chhura khoba hai, aap unko Amethi
se kaise jeetne de sakte ho, Priyanka challenged the crowd. When
the votes were counted, Nehru had come in a lowly fourth.
Similar bursts of ripened passion were on show less than
a month ago as Sonia's children once again travelled to Amethi,
this time her own constituency (it had been Rajiv's once upon a
time and the family had lovingly tended to it) and sparked off a
thousand rumours. As the political groundswell grew beneath her
feet, Priyanka made body contact with old women in the scattered
villages and questioned the locally elected member of the state
assembly about unfulfilled promises. Rahul's dimpled smile and quiet
manner brought back memories of the once-naive Rajiv, but it was
Priyanka who shone brightly.
The contrast between these impassioned, young kids and the
elderly Atal Behari Vajpayee, meanwhile, couldn't be more stark.
On the one hand there's the aura of dynasty seeking to reinvent
a flaccid grand old party. On the other, is an octogenarian, who's
spent all his life in the right-wing and is now coming to occupy
the vast middle ground that should have ideologically belonged to
the Congress. `Atal Behari Nehru' is the latest name that has been
used by the increasingly powerful Indian middle class to describe
the multi-faceted Vajpayee. As the cadres of the Congress await
leadership from the top, like manna from heaven, the ``Congressification''
of the Bhartiya Janata Party is taking place.
Whether it's making peace with Pakistan - that could have
its own unexpected bonus by calming passions across the religious
divide at home - or seeking to settle the 40-year-old boundary dispute
with China, whether it's pushing the economic reform agenda in the
teeth of swadeshi opposition or atoning for the Gujarat pogrom two
years ago, Vajpayee's idea of India is now publicly acknowledged
to be larger and far more inclusive than that of the BJP. In the
bargain he has widened the mantle, and on the eve of this election,
also allowed all kinds of opportunists and event-seekers - an essential
characteristic of any centrist party - to participate in the promised
spoils of victory. So, Arif Mohammed Khan (better known for quitting
Rajiv Gandhi's government in 1987 in disgust against New Delhi's
refusal to be progressive over the Shah Bano case) has joined the
BJP. As has Lakshman Singh, the brother of Congress leader (and
until recently, the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh) Digvijay Singh.
And when the press raised a hue and cry about the inclusion of a
well-known gangster called D.P. Yadav into the BJP, it was PM Vajpayee
and deputy PM L.K. Advani, who ordered that his four-day-old membership
into the BJP be revoked.
Meanwhile, there's Feroze Varun, the ``other Gandhi,'' who
only the other year charmed Delhi's middle-class literati by publishing
a book of poetry. Many have claimed how he's always been a bit of
a brat, unlike Sonia's impeccably-behaved kids, and point as confirmation
to the time when he threw a major tantrum at the death anniversary
ceremony of his own father, Sanjay, only last year. Now Varun's
in the BJP, just like his mother, Maneka. The irony of history is
that when Sanjay, the younger of Indira Gandhi's two sons and her
favourite, died in 1980 in a plane crash, a part of Indira died
with him
but that's history. And in a nation that hardly values
its history, the present is all too real.
Over the next couple of months, then, as India redeems itself,
the value of dynastic politics is likely to be debated again and
again. A magazine survey recently found that as many as 70 per cent
of the population wanted Priyanka-Rahul to join active politics,
pointing to the yawning gap in trust spawned by the BJP. As many
as 41 percent (against 37 percent who said ``yes'') said they were
''not'' put off by the prospect of dynastic rule, and that their
entry would (69 percent) dramatically help revive the Congress'
prospects.
Whatever their decision, one thing is amply clear: by this
time next month, this strange silence over India is likely to be
replaced by a raucous multi-lingual babble, as the world's largest,
but ever-chaotic democracy, once more, prepares to go to the polls.
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