Last month’s Supreme Court ruling setting aside Benazir Bhutto’s conviction has, perhaps, been the best news for the exiled leader since her ignominious ouster from power in 1996. The verdict provided a new lifeline and catapulted her back to the centrestage of Pakistan’s political chess game.

Describing it as a vindication of her cause, a euphoric Ms Bhutto immediately declared her intention to become prime minister for the third time. “I will return to the country soon to lead the struggle for democracy,” declared the mercurial former prime minister who has seen more ups and downs in her political career than any other Pakistani politician.

After a long time she appears to be in fighting spirits, anticipating a favourable political situation at home with a beleaguered military regime wobbling along and a political vacuum waiting to be filled. The Pakistan People’s Party’s unexpectedly good showing at the local government polls has given another boost to her political ambitions.

Ironically, after being written off by many observers as a spent political force, Ms Bhutto appears to be in contention for yet another comeb ack. With her main political rival, Nawaz Sharif, out in the cold and other political parties lacking in leadership, the situation seems more favourable for her now than at any time since her unceremonious ouster from power five years ago.

But can she make her dream of a return to power come true? Notwithstanding her eternal optimism, most observers believe she still has a long way to go. The military leadership appears determined to keep her out of politics. The generals have formulated their own game plan of imposing a new brand of controlled “democracy” by the October 2002 deadline. They have already made it clear that there is no place for Ms Bhutto or any other well known political personality in that structure. The recent crackdown on the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, (ARD) and the making of a ‘King’s Party’ in the form of a new Muslim League, along with General Musharraf’s reported intent to make a bid for the presidency, betray the military’s real purpose.

Ms Bhutto won a major court battle when a seven-member Supreme Court bench upheld her appeal, suspending the five-year jail sentence awarded to Bhutto and Zardari, and ordered a fresh trial into the Cotecna bribery case. The couple was accused of accepting millions of dollars in kickbacks from a Swiss firm. In addition to the jail sentence, the special accountability court headed by Justice Malik Abdul Qayyum had fined them 8.6 million dollars each and disqualified them from public office for five years.

The Supreme Court ruling overturning the sentence did not come as a surprise after it was established that trial by the accountability court was manipulated. Bhutto’s legal position was strengthened after the disclosure of a taped conversation between Justice Abdul Qayyum and Saifur Rehman, chief of Mr. Sharif’s accountability cell. The sensational disclosure of 32 tapes which revealed that the judge was pressured to convict the former prime minister and her husband, left the superior court with no choice but to overturn the controversial verdict. However, the retrial order makes it apparent that the bribery charge has not been quashed.

Bhutto, who has been living in exile in London was quick to interpret the judgement as a vindication. “The ruling has removed one big hurdle to my return to Pakistan,” she declared. But most observers agree that Bhutto has to clear many more hurdles before she can safely return to Pakistan. Not only is she facing trial on five corruption charges at present, but nine more cases against her are ready to be filed in the accountability courts.

Bhutto’s plans for an early return to the country suffered a serious setback just a few days after her court victory when the British government finally handed over to Pakistan thousands of documents containing details of the assets and bank accounts belonging to her and her jailed husband, Asif Ali Zardari. The British authorities had withheld the information over the past eighteen months after the military takeover. The National Accountability Bureau maintains the documents will help in gathering evidence in other corruption cases against her.

NAB chief, General Khalid Maqbool, has warned that the former prime minister will be arrested on her return, given that she faces nine fresh corruption charges involving an amount of 1.5 billion dollars. Although Ms Bhutto said the jail threat would not change her plans, some party sources concede the latest development may create serious problems for her.

The arrest of former Pakistan navy chief Admiral Mansur-ul-Haq in the United States and his expected extradition to Pakistan may also be used against her. Admiral Mansur, who fled to the US after his dismissal on corruption charges in 1999, allegedly pocketed millions of dollars in kickbacks on the Agosta submarine deal with France. NAB investigators maintain that the case also involves Asif Zardari and some of his cronies. The court cases will proceed according to the law, said General Maqbool.

All these factors have blocked Bhutto’s early return to Pakistan. According to senior party sources, she now plans to end her self-exile some time in September, after the completion of local government elections. “There is a strong pressure from supporters for her immediate return, but we will have to take all factors into consideration before taking a final decision,” said a senior PPP leader. “This will give the party enough time to mobilise public support.”

Although Bhutto supporters anticipate an “Imam Khomeini” type of welcome for her back home, this is an extremely unlikely prospect. The party may have regained a support base in her home province of Sindh and in some parts of Punjab, largely because of the existing political vacuum, but there is no ground swell for her. The limited success of her party in the local elections cannot be seen as a measure of her growing popularity. There is no likelihood of any significant resistance or protest if she is arrested on arrival. Despite growing public disenchantment with the military regime, people are not prepared to come out on the streets for her.

If the recent crackdown on the opposition Alliance for Restoration of Democracy is any indicator, it is clear that the military regime will not hesitate to use brute state power to crush any anti-government campaign. Neither the PPP nor the motley opposition alliance is in a position to mobilise public discontent and launch an effective anti-government movement.

It is very apparent that the regime, at least for now, does not face a formidable challenge from a divided opposition, despite growing anti-military sentiments, particularly in Sindh and the other smaller provinces.

However, the situation does not bode well for the military regime in the long run, particularly as it prepares to impose a new political dispensation. Following in the footsteps of previous military dictators, General Musharraf is trying to prop up a pro- military Pakistan Muslim League. It is evident that the new PML faction led by Mian Azhar is virtually a political wing of the military. Both the PML and military sources confirm that the split in the PML was orchestrated by the political wing of the ISI, which has become much more active in the game of political manipulation.

Lt. General Akram, deputy director-general ISI, reportedly played a key role in the formation of the ‘loyal’ Muslim League. Senior League sources confirmed that they were directed by the ISI to elect Mian Azhar as the new president of the party. At one point even General Musharraf intervened to resolve the differences over the former Punjab governor. Considering him a political lightweight, most PML leaders opposed Azhar’s candidature, but they grudgingly accepted him at the General’s persuasion. According to some senior PML sources, the military now wants the party to elect Ilahi Bakhsh Soomro as their parliamentary party leader. “It will pave the way to nominate him as prime minister if the generals decide to restore the assembly,” said a senior PML leader.

Apparently, the current political manipulation is a prelude to the military’s plan to create a new political set-up under its aegis. But as in the past, such a system is not likely to survive. Most observers agree that it may create its own political dynamics, deepening the political crisis. Some PPP leaders believe this will help Bhutto return to power.

While throwing down the gauntlet, a shrewd Ms Bhutto also understands that the military cannot be forced to abdicate power voluntarily and that her comeback depends on some kind of compromise with the powerful generals. Her latest statements betray her dilemma. While indicating a “tactical withdrawal from a flawed system” a few weeks ago, she still wants the military to talk to her. There are also some indications that the PPP may accept General Musharraf as the president if the military is prepared to strike a deal with it. But the junta, at least for now, is not inclined to respond. There is no indication that the regime will ease pressure on Ms Bhutto by withdrawing other corruption charges against her and her husband.

It is quite evident that the military would be willing to deal with Bhutto and release Zardari only if she agrees to keep out of politics for at least three years. The regime has already offered to release Zardari, provided he pays the amount which NAB believes the couple had received in kickbacks and commissions. Zardari reportedly rejected the offer, knowing fully well that it may spell the end of Bhutto’s politics. “We are not the Sharifs. The PPP workers will lynch us if we try to strike a deal with the government,” Zardari said during one of his court appearances.

Bhutto’s return to the country may serve as a catalyst in intensifying the anti-military movement, but it cannot bring down the regime. She no longer has the charisma or the credibility to inspire hope. Her tainted past is still alive in people’s minds, and even the party cadres are not motivated enough ? at least not yet ? to fight against the military. Bhutto may still get the votes, largely because of the absence of any viable option, but the regime has made it abundantly clear that they would not allow her to participate in the elections. “They have played their innings and it was a useless innings,” General Musharraf declared recently.

Ms Bhutto’s hopes of staging a comeback for the third time depends on whether she is prepared to wage a protracted struggle and maybe even suffer imprisonment. The erstwhile prime minister has a long wait ahead of her

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