The death of Abdul Haq, the most influential opposition  Pakhtun commander, has come as a serious blow to the efforts to form a credible post- Taliban government in Afghanistan. A hero of the mujahideen war against the Soviet forces, Commander Haq was regarded by Pakistan and western countries as a leader who could rally round powerful Pakhtun tribes in the eastern Afghan provinces of Logar, Paktia and Nangarhar, in the Taliban heartland.

        Commander Haq, who had lived in Dubai and London since 1996 after the Taliban militia seized control of Kabul, returned to Pakistan to mobilise anti-Taliban Afghan groups.  A key supporter of the former Afghan King Zahir Shah, he succeeded in uniting many opposition factions and leaders who met in Peshawar in the third week of October.  After the assassination of Ahmed Shah Masoud, the military chief of the Northern Alliance, Haq was the most charismatic anti-Taliban leader.

         “It is a great setback to the Afghan political process which has barely taken off from the ground,” said a western diplomat.  The executed guerrilla leader was believed to have the backing of Pakistan as well as the United States in his efforts to build up resistance against the Taliban regime in the Pakhtun belt.  Pakistan has expressed its regret over his execution, saying he was on a peace mission.

        It was, however, not clear why he decided to cross  into Afghanistan at this stage, when the anti-Taliban Afghan groups and former mujahideen commanders had assembled in Peshawar. His departure to Afghanistan was well publicised.  Last week some newspapers and wire agencies in New York received a message from a public relations firm run by Robert McFarlane, a former national security adviser to President Ronald Reagan, asking whether they would like to send a correspondent with Commander Haq.

        McFarlane’s firm was working as a publicist for the executed Afghan commander which has fuelled strong speculations about his US connections.  According to sources close to Haq, the New York stockbrokers, Ritchie brothers, have also been financing and providing support to him.  Two Americans were also seen around him in Peshawar.  Some reports suggest that one of them was with the commander when he was arrested in Azra town in Logar province.

        Abdul Haq apparently decided to go inside Afghanistan after receiving reports of anti-Taliban unrest among the Pakhtun tribes.  According to the reports, he was accompanied by his young son and some close associates. His execution has sent a clear note of warning to the rebels.

        Taliban authorities have warned that they would not “spare any pr- American and pro-Zahir Shah element who crossed into Afghanistan.”  They said they were monitoring  Haq’s movements as he entered into Afghanistan.

       Abdul Haq’s execution is likely to stall the efforts of the international community to accelerate the political process. A special envoy of the former Afghan king, Zahir Shah, has warned that any delay in formation of an alternative interim administration may lead to a dangerous power vacuum in Afghanistan.

       Hedayat Arsala, a former foreign minister of Afghanistan, said there was an urgent need to set up a provisional government that could present Afghans with a credible alternative to the Taliban.  “If we don’t do it within a few weeks, a very serious power vacuum will emerge, creating more problems for the future,” Mr. Arsala told Newsline.

        “We have yet to present the people with an alternative.  Once we have done that, people will support us,” he said.  “We have to do it quite quickly so that we don’t go back to the pre-Taliban period.”

        The Afghan leader hoped the provisional administration would accelerate the disintegration of the Taliban.  He disclosed that many of the Taliban leaders have been in contact with his group and may be willing to support an interim arrangement under the former king.

         Mr. Arsala, who served in the World Bank for 18 years before joining the first mujahideen government formed after the collapse of the pro-communist regime in Afghanistan in 1992, is seen as a potential candidate for a top slot in the future post-Taliban administration with the former king as a figurehead.

        Pakistani officials and western embassies in Islamabad are busy looking for Pakhtun Afghan exiles who could constitute a credible future post-Taliban provisional government in Kabul, but they seem to have achieved little success in their endeavour. Nor there is any sign of a split in the hardline Taliban movement, despite three weeks of fierce air strikes on Afghanistan.

        Most western diplomats appear concerned over the scant progress in finding a political solution for Afghanistan as the US-led military campaign enters the second phase with the start of a land operation by the US special forces.  “It may create a very dangerous situation and worsen the Afghan problem,” maintains a western diplomat.

        Senior Pakistani officials are increasingly critical of the US concentration on the military operation without a political process in place.  They fear a serious backlash in the absence of an alternative arrangement to replace the Taliban hardline leadership.  The military government, which until recently had been supporting the Islamic fundamentalist Afghan regime, believes that moderate elements within the Taliban could play a key role in any future set-up. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is believed to have maintained contacts with Taliban officials and commanders who would be prepared to desert the hardline leadership.  “No one, however, is willing to stick out his neck in the absence of a strong alternative,” says a senior Pakistani official.

        The recent assembly in Peshawar of some former Afghan mujahideen leaders and commanders has not been very successful in rallying the fractious anti-Taliban forces, but western diplomats see it as a good start.  “It may not have been a very representative assembly, but it has set a process in motion,” said a European diplomat.  “It will take a long time to bring the squabbling groups together.”

         The Taliban movement appeared united largely because of the lack of an alternative. Most observers agree that it was not possible for them to join the opposition Northern Alliance which is now totally dominated by the former pro-communist army generals or discredited warlords. But with the possibility of the formation of a broad-based government under former Afghan King Zahir Shah, the situation may change radically.

          The Northern Alliance is largely a conglomeration of squabbling warlords and minority ethnic-based groups who came together because of fear of the Taliban. General Muhammed Faheem, who was the deputy head of KHAD, the dreaded secret police in the communist government of the 1980s, now heads the military wing of the opposition coalition, after the assassination of its charismatic leader, Ahmed Shah Masoud.  Other military leaders with a communist background are General Baba Jan, General Azimi and General Rashid Dostum.  Burhanuddin Rabbani is merely the figurehead president of the coalition.

          The US-led air strikes have triggered a split within the Northern Alliance, with some Pakhtun mujahideen leaders deserting the ranks . The most prominent among them is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who held the post of prime minister in the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani.  Hekmatyar has condemned the American bombing and declared his support for his erstwhile foes, the Taliban. Some reports suggest that deputy Prime Minister Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, a Pakhtun Islamic fundamentalist is also not happy with the alliance’s support for the Americans and former King Zahir Shah