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He
was probably just testing the waters, but by speaking publicly about
the possibility of Pakistan and India exercising "joint control"
over either a part or the whole of a "demilitarised" Jammu
and Kashmir, General Pervez Musharraf has begun the intellectually
unsettling - and politically hazardous - process of moving away
from the warm comfort of stated positions.
The
specific suggestions he made hardly matter, nor indeed that they
have been aired publicly. Ever since his breakfast meeting with
Indian editors during the Agra Summit of July 2001, General Musharraf
has argued that India and Pakistan can make headway on Kashmir only
if they negate outcomes that either side find unacceptable. When
they met in New York last month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asked
the Pakistani President to specify what these unacceptable outcomes
were. The General's remarks last week did not answer Dr Singh's
question fully. But he has at least ruled out as unacceptable (to
India), the idea of a plebiscite and (to Pakistan), the proposal
that the Line of Control could be turned into an international border.
In addition, he spoke of the undivided State as consisting of seven
regions, making this the first time a Pakistani leader has agreed
that the status of the federally-administered `Northern Areas'of
Gilgit-Baltistan - through which the strategic Karakoram highway
to China passes - is still an open question. His remarks were also
the first time that a Pakistani head of state has spoken of "independence"
as an option for a part or the whole of Kashmir.
If
plebiscite and `LoC as border' do not exhaust the full list of outcomes
that might be unacceptable to either side, it is perhaps because
New Delhi has yet to confront - let alone publicly air - its own
views on this difficult question. As the country with more to lose
in formal administrative terms from any final outcome different
from the status quo, India is obviously reluctant to rank its second-best
preferences. Nevertheless, now that General Musharraf has set the
ball rolling, India needs to deliberate upon - and articulate -
what kind of final status outcomes are completely unacceptable to
it.
Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh has already stressed on more than one occasion
that there can be no secession of a region or alteration to India's
frontiers. There are, of course, other red lines from India's point
of view. It will not accept any outcome that is predicated on the
communal partitioning of regions - such as the separation of Kargil
from Ladakh or Poonch-Rajouri from the rest of Jammu - or an outcome
where the rights of minorities are not guaranteed.
But
if India vetoes any change in its external frontiers and Pakistan
finds the `LoC as border' proposal unacceptable, is there any room
at all for a solution? Provided the two sides are willing to think
about sovereignty and administration in a creative manner, there
is no reason why modern politico-juridical institutions cannot be
created which allow the entire population of undivided Jammu and
Kashmir to affirm themselves as a people, as members of the state's
distinct regions and collectivities, and also as citizens of India,
Pakistan and South Asia.
Throughout the world, there are numerous examples of territorial
disputes or sovereignty claims involving homogeneous, mixed or divided
populations being tackled through constitutional broadmindedness.
Not all of these are relevant to Kashmir, or indeed complete or
successful in themselves. Many approaches are still at the suggestion
stage. But they do offer important lessons. Among the settled issues
are the Aland Islands dispute between Finland and Sweden, and the
South Tyrol dispute between Italy and Austria. Works in progress
include the Anglo-Irish peace process over the status of Northern
Ireland, the proposal for joint Anglo-Spanish control over Gibraltar,
and the Noumea agreement for shared sovereignty in the French colony
of New Caledonia. Finally, two exciting ideas still in the initial
stages are the quest for a unified Sami sovereignty cutting across
Norway, Sweden and Finland, and the Ibarretxe Proposal for peaceful
settlement of the Basque question within Spain.
Before
we examine these `models', however, one must clarify that two examples
commonly cited in the Kashmir context - Andorra and Trieste - have
no relevance. The Principality of Andorra, sandwiched between France
and Spain in the Pyrenees, is today an independent country with
a well-developed international personality, an outcome that would
fail Musharraf's `Agra' test as far as India and Pakistan are concerned.
As for the Free Territory of Trieste, over which Italy and Yugoslavia
shared sovereignty until 1954, the lessons, if any, are negative.
The leading jurist and commentator A.G. Noorani has rightly argued
that the `Trieste formula' is nothing but a plan for communal partition,
with the Treaty of Osimo giving the largely Italian port city of
Trieste to Italy and the Croat-Slovene dominated Istrian region
to the erstwhile Yugoslavia.
The Aland Islands, 40 km from the coast of Sweden and 25 km from
Finland, are an autonomous, demilitarised Swedish-speaking province
of Finland. The Islands were ceded by Sweden to Russia in 1809 and
made part of the Grand Duchy of Finland. At the end of World War
I, when the islands came under the control of an independent Finnish
Government, the islanders and Sweden petitioned the League of Nations
for the right to secede from Finland. The League decided in favour
of Finnish sovereignty, but declared the Islands should be an autonomous,
demilitarised territory with full protection to its residents' linguistic
and cultural rights. Today, the 26,000 islanders have their own
flag, postage stamps and police force, but are not independent.
The
South Tyrol dispute was more protracted, but offers more similarities
with Kashmir because of the division of the Tyrolean region between
Austria and Italy and a heterogeneous population of German (70 per
cent), Italian (26 per cent) and Ladin (4 per cent) speakers. South
Tyrol belonged to Austria - along with North and East Tyrol - until
it was annexed by Italy at the end of World War I and `Italianised'
later by Mussolini. After WWII, the South Tyroleans collected signatures
demanding reunification with Austria, but the Great Powers rejected
this in 1946. Later that year, Italy and Austria signed the Paris
Agreement in which Rome agreed to give South Tyrol autonomous legislative
and executive power. However, the Italians did not implement the
agreement sincerely, leading to terrorist bombings in 1957 and the
decision by Austria to move the U.N. In 1969, measures to put genuine
self-government in place were agreed but it took another 20 years
to implement the fine print. It was only in 1992 that Austria informed
the U.N. that the dispute was finally over.
Today, South Tyrol enjoys a high degree of autonomy and
interacts with the sovereign Austrian regions of North and East
Tyrol on a continuous basis. Local executive bodies are also structured
to give representation to Italian, German and Ladin speakers.
Another creative example is the Sami Parliamentary Assembly,
established in 2000, as a joint forum of the parliaments of the
Sami indigenous people who reside in the northern regions of Norway,
Sweden and Finland. The Sami have been demanding greater control
over the land, water and natural resources of their ancient homeland.
They elect representatives to their own regional parliaments but
are now trying to develop a pan-Sami political institution to better
protect their rights. The three Nordic countries have all been pulled
up by the U.N. for their treatment of the Sami and many issues -
such as Norway's decision to allow expanded bombing ranges for NATO
warplanes - affect the indigenous population cutting across sovereign
state borders. The Sami example is a case of an attempt by a partitioned
people to craft meaningful political institutions from below, often
in the face of indifference from above. Similar to the Sami initiative
is Basque leader Jose Luis Ibarretxe's proposal for `shared sovereignty
and free association' of the Basque region of Spain. Conceived as
an alternative to the "blind alley offered by ETA's violence,"
Ibarretxe's proposal is for the Basque region to remain a part of
the sovereign territory of Spain but enjoy the right to establish
economic relations with the Basque regions of France, as well as
representation in the European Union.
There is also the Anglo-Irish agreement, which established
structures for consultation between Britain and Ireland in their
effort to resolve Northern Ireland's status and enshrines key principles
like that of majority consent and non-violence. Pan-Ireland institutions
dealing with transportation, tourism and fisheries were conceived
of as vehicles for integration on the ground, even if thorny political
issues take time settling. Finally, the 1999 Noumea agreement on
New Caledonia - where the indigenous Kanaks are outnumbered by the
descendants of European settlers and by other non-Melanesians -
maintains French nationality over the colonial possession while
establishing the idea of New Caledonia citizenship over a 20-year
transition period till a referendum on final status. This example
is unappealing in the South Asian context because Kashmir is not
a `colonial possession.' Nevertheless, the notion of shared sovereignty
is an interesting one.
By themselves, none of these examples offers a complete set
of principles for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute but many
individual elements are attractive. South Tyrol suggests the notion
of cross-border provincial ties between Ladakh and the Northern
Areas, Jammu and West Punjab, and Uri, the Valley and Muzaffarabad
- all anchored in cast-iron constitutional guarantees of autonomy
and ethno-linguistic representation. The Aland Islands suggest the
virtue of demilitarisation, and Ireland the principle of democratic
consent. The Sami plan suggests the idea of a pan-J&K parliamentary
assembly, linked to separate assemblies within Indian and Pakistani
sovereignties, but with broad powers to examine matters of transportation,
forests, water, perhaps even taxation.
Once the two governments start addressing the question of
Jammu and Kashmir with sincerity and ingenuity, there is no reason
why a common constitutional grammar and vocabulary cannot quickly
be established upon which, as the talks progress, the formal edifice
of a compromise cannot be erected. The building blocks have to be
respected for democratic consent, not just of the people of the
undivided princely state as a whole, but also of the distinct ethnic
and regional collectives which exist. Perhaps one way to move forward
is for the two governments to encourage, as an adjunct to the Composite
Dialogue Process, a dialogue between the Kashmiris on both sides
of the LoC - consisting of elected representatives from Indian-administered
J&K, Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir, members of the Northern
Areas Consultative Council, as well as those political parties and
entities on both sides of the LoC who have a view on what a final
settlement should look like. The last category would include those
the Indian government considers "secessionists" as well
leaders of the autonomist and even secessionist movements on the
Pakistani side such as JKLF and the 'Balwaristan' groups.
This intra-Kashmiri dialogue can be episodic and unstructured
to begin with but New Delhi and Islamabad must provide every assistance
in terms of visas and easy travel so that this contact and debate
is as far-reaching as possible.
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