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The
temperature plummeted sharply as the steady drizzle turned into
a thunderstorm. Mohammed Hayat, wrapped in a thin blanket, looked
anxiously towards the mountains . "It will soon be snowing
there, "he muttered.
Hayat,
a poor farmer, had walked almost 20 miles on a perilous mountain
path to Gandool , to get food and a tent for his family stranded
in a village 7500 feet up in the mountains in Kaghan. The village
is one of hundreds still waiting for relief.
Hayat
makes this torturous journey every second day to receive food supplies
from aid agencies, because he is not given enough food rations to
feed his family for a longer period. His greatest need however is
a tent. His wife and two surviving children have been sleeping in
the ruins of his destroyed house where his two young sons were killed.
He was told to come back later.
"My
surviving children are sick and I don't know whether they will survive
for long in this cold weather without shelter," said a visibly
dejected Hayat as he started his long trek back home. With his dishevelled
beard and his face lined with sorrow and misery, he looked much
older than his 30 odd years.
Once
a beautiful district in the middle of a pine forest on the way to
Kaghan, Gandool can now only be reached through a treacherous rocky
path. After the earthquake's devastation, it wears the look of desolation
and death. A part of the mountain has turned brown due to massive
landslides. Hundreds of bodies are still buried under the debris
of fallen houses three weeks after the quake. "There is no
one to dig them out," said Ashiq Hussain, a local taxi driver
who lost one child and many close relations in the quake.
The situation in Balakot town, a few miles down the road,
is even worse. While a large part of the population was killed by
the quake, the survivors live in precarious conditions. Hundreds
of people lined up for hours at an army relief station at Balakot
to seek food rations and medicines. Many had walked for hours down
through the narrow mountainous pass. "I come here every day
to get food for my family," said Khalid Rehman, whose wife
and son are stranded in a remote village in Kaghan. The situation
has remained unchanged for the last three weeks and the stench of
decaying corpses fills the air. Relief workers warned of the outbreak
of epidemics because of poor sanitation. The situation is not very
different in other affected areas of northern Pakistan and Azad
Kashmir.
Hundreds
and thousands of survivors of the October 8 earthquake in remote
mountainous areas, are now faced with a second wave of death with
the advent of the harsh Himalayan winter. The temperature at night
drops to sub zero and some areas have already received the first
snowfall of the season.
The children will be the first victims in the second wave of fatalities.
Doctors say older people and children are at risk because of deteriorating
weather and inadequate medical and food supplies. Chest diseases
are now common and several children have already died of pneumonia
in the high altitude areas.
Children
have been major victims of the quake. International relief agencies
believe more than 40 percent of the casualties were children. They
were the most vulnerable in school buildings. According to one estimate,
more than 14000 schools have been completely destroyed with thousands
of pupils trapped inside. "An entire generation is lost,"
said Helen Kirby of Save the Children. The United Nations Children's
Fund (UNICEF) has warned that tens of thousands of children were
in peril in the remote earthquake areas. The agency estimates that
as many as 120000 children remain untreated in the inaccessible
mountainous areas and some 10000 could die of hunger, cold and disease
in the next few weeks.
Doctors said the number of diarrhoea cases have increased
alarmingly, while scores of people have died of tetanus. Hundreds
of people still line up for hours every day at an army relief station
in Balakot to get their daily food ration. Many complain that they
have only one meal a day. According to aid workers, a lower than
expected response from the international community, the scarcity
of domestic resources and mismanagement have compounded the problem.
Even
in those areas where aid has reached, many survivors have remained
either totally unattended or received very little supplies. The
UN has warned that thousands more will die in the second wave if
emergency supplies do not reach them in time. Around 3.5 million
people have been affected by the quake and some 80,0000 of them
are still without shelter. Many are spending nights in sub zero
temperatures and could die of exposure if they are not provided
protection fast. Many families have only plastic sheeting to cover
themselves in areas where the temperature drops to minus five at
night. Blocked roads, snow and a serious lack of funding will turn
the mountains into death traps for hundreds of thousands of quake
survivors. "Our fear is that the aid may not reach these people
in time to save them," says Amanda Pitt, a UN spokesperson
in Islamabad. Most people do not want to leave their villages and
move to warmer areas where the government plans to set up tented
villages. "We cannot leave the place where our people are buried,"
said a resident of Kaghan. "Why can't the government provide
help in our areas?"
The dire prospect of hundreds and thousands of earthquake
survivors dying from hunger, diseases and cold has sparked mounting
public discontent with the way the government has confronted the
disaster. While civil society and the general public responded with
unprecedented zeal, the state has miserably failed to fulfil its
responsibility. Whatever credibility the government had was buried
under the debris of the earthquake. Pakistan's greatest disaster
has harshly exposed the weakness of state institutions.
For almost 72 hours the government remained in a state of
inertia. The cabinet had no clue about the magnitude of the disaster
and the military proved to be incapable of dealing with the crisis.
It was shocking to see that it took so long to start rescue work
even in the most heavily militarised zone of Azad Kashmir. In Bagh,
one of the most devastated regions, there was no outside help available
for two days.
People were in a state of shock when I arrived in Bagh on
October 9. Dead bodies were littered on the streets and thousands
of people were still trapped in the collapsed buildings. There were
only a few able-bodied people who tried in vain to rescue those
buried under tons of concrete with their bare hands. Army helicopters
flew throughout the day to the army brigade headquarter to take
out the injured soldiers. But none came to the rescue of the thousands
of trapped civilians. That further fuelled the bitterness among
the hapless people. "Why can't they come here?"questioned
a young man. His anger was palpable: "We have fought for Pakistan,
but they don't care for us." The same sentiments were reflected
everywhere in Azad Kashmir. Timely rescue efforts could have saved
thousands of lives, at least in towns like Muzaffarabad, Bagh and
Balakot.
Relief efforts were also delayed. Relief agencies cite lack
of coordination between the government and the aid organisations
as the crucial reason for help not reaching many affected areas.
"There are scores of organisations working in the affected
areas, but there is no coordination," said Saad Yousuf, a spokesman
for the NGO, Sungi.
A major reason for the slow relief process was that the entire
operation was handed over to the army. The civil administration
was nowhere in the picture, even in northern Pakistan where a local
government is in place. Army troops can be more effective if they
are deployed to assist the civil administration; they cannot be
expected to manage the entire relief work operation.
Musharraf used the catastrophe to further tighten the military's
grip on politics and undermine civil institutions. The army is controlling
everything, from relief to foreign donations - and it is not accountable
to anyone. The cabinet and the parliament were completely bypassed
and there is no one to provide any central leadership to the unprecedented
public mobilisation. While the government was slow to respond and
the army failed to deliver, the void was filled by non-governmental
organisations and radical Islamic groups. It was largely through
the efforts of these organisations that relief reached the devastated
areas.
The Islamic militant groups, with their vast network and
well disciplined cadres, were most active in the affected areas,
particularly in Kashmir. The Jamaat-ud-Daawa's camp, on a piece
of sloping ground by the river Neelum in Muzaffarabad, illustrates
their efficiency and organisation. Daawa, on the terror watch list,
is the parent organisation of the Lashkar-i-Toiba, an outlawed militant
group fighting the Indian forces in Kashmir. A cluster of almost
a hundred tents provide shelter for displaced persons and house
a mobile hospital where doctors from all over Pakistan and other
countries perform surgery round-the-clock. Laying down their arms,
hundreds of LeT fighters are now busy carrying relief goods, sometimes
on their backs to those remote areas, which can only be reached
by helicopters. Several other outlawed Kashmiri militant groups
have also set up their own relief camps.
Just
a couple of kilometers from the Daawa camp, is the newly set up
American field hospital. "The Americans face tough competition
from the radical Islamists in the battle for the hearts and minds
of the Kashmiris," says Rifaqat Hussain, a local resident.
The radical Islamists have already made an immense impact in the
region. While the government has been able to do very little, the
burden of relief work has been taken over by the Islamists.
The growing influence
of the Islamists may be a cause for concern, but there is little
the government can do. In an interview, Musharraf has admitted that
he was battling to assert the administration's competence in the
face of stiff competition from the militant Islamic groups. He said
that he cannot stop them from relief work, but warned that they
would not be allowed to exploit the situation and solicit new recruits.
However, most political analysts agree, that with the credibility
of the government and the army at its lowest ebb, it will be difficult
to contain the Islamists.
The deadly Himalayan winter could be as bleak for Musharraf, as
it will be for the desperate earthquake survivors.
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