Cruise missile bombardments and the crackle of anti-aircraft  fire lit up the night sky over the Afghan capital, Kabul, as the city plunged into complete darkness when the United States and British alliance launched massive simultaneous air strikes against Taliban installations in Afghanistan’s five main cities.

        People scurried for safety as the airstrikes began just after night fell.  “There are huge explosions everywhere,” said an Afghan aid worker in Kabul in an electronic message to his office in Islamabad.  Kandahar, the spiritual capital of the Taliban and home to its supreme leader, Mullah Muhammed Omar, was also targetted and its airport control tower totally destroyed.  Power was cut off in Kabul immediately after the first explosions which were aimed at military installations in the southwest of the city.

The explosions eased off for a few minutes, but resumed after a jet aircraft flew over Kabul bombing key installations in the second wave of attacks. A curfew was clamped down making it difficult for people to flee to safety and a cloud of smoke engulfed Kabul airport and the surrounding area.

       After three weeks of intense preparations, American and British forces launched a combined military campaign against the Kabul regime and Osama bin Laden, the main suspect behind the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.  Over 50 cruise missiles were fired from an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, while bombers took off from the Indian Ocean base, Diego Garcia, overflying Pakistan to bomb Taliban installations.  With each cruise missile costing the US a whopping two million dollars, the operation has to be the costliest manhunt in history.  More than 20 civilians are said to have died in Kabul alone in the first wave of airstrikes, despite US claims to have targeted only military installations and terrorist camps. “They have not made any differentiation between the civil and military areas,” said Abdul Salam Zaeef, the Taliban ambassador in Islamabad.  Just hours before the airstrikes, the Taliban had made a last minute appeal to prevent US attacks: they offered to detain bin Laden and try him under Islamic law if the United States made a formal request. The Bush administration quickly rejected the appeal saying their demand to hand over bin Laden was not negotiable.

        A defiant Taliban, refusing to bow to American might, have vowed to fight to the last man. In their first reaction, Taliban leaders called the air strikes a “terrorist attack” and declared that  America “will never achieve its goal.”  From his hideout in the mountains, in a recorded message on Al-Jazeera TV, bin Laden described it as an attack on Islam and called for Muslims to wage jihad against America. In a chilling message to America, he vowed that Americans “would never see, know or taste safety and security till there is safety and security here and in Palestine.”  Hundreds of Pakistanis responded to his call by joining the Taliban forces.

        The joint American and British military strikes against Afghanistan have set in motion a chain of events which many fear might plunge the entire region into an unprecedented crisis.  Americans have said the attacks will be short and targeted, but there are no indications of the war ending soon.  “It is going to be a long haul with serious repercussions for the region, particularly Pakistan,” said a senior Pakistani official.

        Withdrawing support for its longstanding ally, the Taliban, General Musharraf has fully backed the US in its military campaign.  “I personally ... and my government feels that there is evidence leading to an association between this terrorist act and Osama bin Laden,” General  Musharraf said justifying his decision .  It was a radical shift from Pakistan’s earlier position that there was no substantive evidence of bin Laden’s involvement in terrorist activities.  What is more significant is Pakistan’s joining hands with the US and other countries to remove the repressive and hardline Islamic regime in Kabul which Islamabad helped create.  Not only was Pakistan the only country to have continued recognising the Taliban administration, but it also provided active help in their war against the opposition Northern Alliance.   Thousands of Pakistani Islamic militants, along with Arab fighters, have been a crucial part of the Taliban war machinery.  Islamabad’s unwavering support for the harsh, conservative administration had provoked strong international reaction.  The policy also had serious domestic consequences as it fueled Islamic militancy and fired sectarian killings at home.  Although Pakistan’s leverage over the Taliban had weakened substantially over the years, the military government continued to support the predominantly Pushtun administration saying it provided the country a “strategic depth.”

        The turnaround in Pakistan’s policy, however, has come largely under massive American pressure after the September 11 terrorist attacks in America which killed more than 7000 people.  America did not leave Pakistan much choice after Bush bluntly told the military government: “Either you are with us or against us.”  General Musharraf candidly outlined Pakistan’s dilemma when he said that the decision was a necessary compromise to save the country.  The military regime feared that the United States would use Indian bases to launch military strikes on Afghanistan, jeopardising Pakistan’s own security.

        Nerverthless, General Musharraf took a bold decision in the face of strong and vociferous opposition from extremist Islamic parties as well as apprehensions that the decision would cause a rift in the army which has been involved in Afghanistan for decades.  Not only has his pro-American shift not gone down well with some of the hardline generals, it has polarised the country over what course Pakistan should take. 

       The reaction from the extremist religious parties was swift and deadly.  On October 8, seven to eight thousand Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) supporters took to the streets in Quetta destroying and looting banks and torching UNICEF offices as a helpless administration moved in but failed to control the mob.  Four people were killed.  In Peshawar the JUI and Jamaat-i-Islami took out a 1500-strong procession that set fire to two NGO offices and a hospital before being dispersed by aerial firing and tear- gassing by law enforcement agencies.   The next day, the army was called out in Islamabad as the administration cracked down on extremist religious elements.  Schools in Karachi, Quetta and Peshawar have been closed indefinitely.  

        While the Islamists are out on the streets, almost all the mainstream secular parties are backing General Musharraf on the issue.  The lifting of sanctions and promises of massive economic support from the United States and other western countries has also helped the military government to ease Pakistan’s financial difficulties and neutralise other sections of society, particularly the urban middle class.

        For Pakistan, it is almost a return to the 1980s when massive western aid poured into the country following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s frontline position against communism not only brought an unprecedented financial windfall, but also helped General Ziaul Haq to survive in power for 11 years.  By joining the present international coalition, Pakistan has now become a “linchpin” in the west’s war against terrorism.  It marks a dramatic turnaround in international perceptions as until September 11 Pakistan was perceived by the west as a country which harboured terrorists and was the sole supporter of the Taliban regime.  Today, the west’s concern about the restoration of democracy in Pakistan has disappeared overnight and the military government is now being presented in Colin Powell’s words as “an exemplary country in the fight against terrorism.”

        However, the nature of Pakistan’s alignment with the United States is radically different from that of the 1980s when “jihad” was used as an instrument in the war against communism.  It is now part of the alliance to crush Islamic militancy and the same pro-jihad  forces spawned by the west during the Afghan resistance war against the Soviet Union. Ironically, former foes, United States and Russia, find themselves in the same camp in the military strikes in Afghanistan this time around. The west is now supporting the Northern Alliance which is dominated by former communist generals.

        Predictably, the military strikes against the Taliban have provoked widespread and violent protest by Pakistan’s Islamic religious groups.   Influential Islamic religious parties have denounced the military strikes against Afghanistan as a war against Islam and called for a jihad against the United States.  The pro-Taliban Afghan Defence Council have asked the Muslims to rise up against the military government. “It is the duty of every Muslim to support their brothers in this critical hour,” said Riaz Durana, a central leader of the group comprising some 30 religious organisations.

          Munawar Hassan, the deputy leader of Jamaat-i-Islami, warned the military government of serious consequences for supporting America. “There will be a serious backlash in the army against General Pervez Musharraf,” he said and maintained that army officers would soon revolt against the present military leadership.   Islamic militant organisations fighting the Indian forces in Kashmir have also supported the call for anti-government agitation.  “Americans are killing innocent Muslims and they will have to pay the price for it,” said Amir Mehdi, a leader of Harkatul Mujahideen which has been declared a terrorist organisation by the Bush administration.

          General Musharraf has also moved swiftly in sidelining those generals who did not unconditionally support his policy in the changed situation and who had a reputation of harbouring radical Islamist views.  Significantly the shakeup, which came in the throes of the American attack, has dramatically changed the complexion of the army.  The top brass now wears a totally new liberal image tailored to the new situation with Pakistan trying to cut its umbilical cord with militant Islam and the Taliban.   General Muhammed Aziz, a known Islamist general, has been elevated to the largely ceremonial and ineffective post of Chairman Joint Staff Committee, a post earlier held by General Musharraf himself.

          Even more changes are likely as General Musharraf fears a backlash in the army over his decision to support US military strikes against Afghanistan.  General Musharraf, who  gave himself an indefinite extension as Chief of Army Staff, has brought General Muhammed Yousuf, known to be a liberal officer, to the newly created post of Vice Chief of Army Staff.

          Though the military government has so far managed to contain the wave of anti-American protests by Islamic religious parties, the military assault on Afghanistan has made things increasingly difficult for General Musharraf.  Most observers fear that in the event of a nation wide anti-government movement, the army is in danger of being divided.  The major cause for concern for the military government is that the war in Afghanistan may drag on plunging the country deeper into civil strife.  “Pakistan will be left to handle a much messier situation,” said a senior Pakistani foreign ministry official.

         The Taliban are estimated to have 40,000 fighters including 6000 Arab followers of bin Laden.  There is every likelihood of the Taliban government in Kabul falling under the several-pronged attacks by the United States and the Northern Alliance.  However the Islamic movement, which has developed a strong support base in Pushtun areas, can fight back from their strongholds. Most observers agree that it will not be possible to destroy the Taliban, which will remain the most powerful force in Afghanistan, even if ousted from Kabul.

          Boosted by support from the United States and Russia, the opposition Northern Alliance has launched a major offensive north of Kabul and the Samangan province. Some reports suggest Ismail Khan, one of the leading anti-Taliban commanders, is preparing for a major assault on Herat. A former governor of Herat, Ismail Khan recently returned from Iran where he was living in exile after his spectacular escape from a high-security Taliban jail in Kandahar last year.  Taliban troops are also under pressure in Samangan province where the forces of Uzbek warlord, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, have made significant advances, threatening the Islamic militia’s control over Mazar-i-Sharif.

          Defence experts and western diplomats believe that with strong American and Russian backing, the opposition forces may capture Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif and some other provinces in northeastern Afghanistan leading to a possible collapse of Taliban rule in a large part of the country. Mullah Omar, the hard-line supreme leader of the Taliban movement, has vowed that his Islamic militia is prepared to fight for 20 years if his government is ousted from Kabul.

          According to Sayed Ishaq Gailani, of the Afghanistan National Unification Movement, the strike will not be short and swift as General Musharraf hopes.  “The Arab fighters have disappeared into the mountains and will be impossible for the Americans to target,” says Gailani.  “The Americans have complicated the issue even further.  With no bases in Afghanistan, it is impossible for them to carry out a successful mission.  What are they bombing? Empty buildings.  So far there have only been civilian casualties including four UN workers.  As in the past they have ignored the voice of the Afghan people.  I spoke to my contacts in Kabul and Jalalabad and the people are increasingly unhappy about the role of the Northern Alliance vis-a-vis the Americans.  The Northern Alliance will never be accepted by the Pushtun majority no matter how much America backs them.  Unless a legitimate government is installed and all the foreign militants are driven out, nothing will ever change in Afghanistan.