Armed with anything from locally made rifles to machineguns, thousands of Pakistani tribesmen streamed into Afghanistan to fight against America after the Taliban cleared them to join the jihad.  For the past week they have been camping on the borders in the Bajaur tribal area waiting for a green signal from the Taliban.  Though earlier the Taliban had said they did not need outside help to fight the US air assaults, a change came after Taliban leaders met Sufi Muhammed, the firebrand leader of the Tehrik Nifaz Shariat Muhammed.  As wave upon wave of holy warriors crossed over to the other side of the Durand Line, thousands of armed zealots declared jihad inside Pakistan blocking the Karakoram Highway.  Initially there was no move by the Pakistani authorities to stop the heavily armed tribals from taking over the highway.  It was only when food supplies to the Northern areas was threatened that the government began negotiations with the area’s ulema.

            Meanwhile on October 4, the US blitzed the Taliban frontlines north of Kabul with the heaviest bout of bombing in its campaign so far.  Observers estimate that at least a 100 bombs were dropped in the attack.  The Taliban’s resolute resistance to the might of the world’s sole superpower has provided renewed inspiration to their Pakistani radical Islamic supporters waging war against the military regime for supporting the US-led military campaign.  Their tone has become much more stridently aggressive as they call upon army officers to rise in revolt against their leadership.  The pro-Taliban and anti-American agitation has fast turned into an anti-government movement.  And General Pervez Musharraf has become their bete noir for reversing Pakistan’s long-standing policy of supporting the harsh conservative Islamic regime in Kabul.    Most religious leaders have openly condemned Musharraf’s policies and he has become the singular target of their hostility.  “Musharraf should step down and be sent into exile, and the Pakistan army and the people of Pakistan should take over the government,” says Maulana Sami-ul-Haq, chairman of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Defence Council.  The council, which has 22 religious parties in its fold, has called for a nationwide, wheel-jam strike on November 9.

            Meanwhile, Islamic zealots seeking revenge for the American bombings in Afghanistan massacred 18 innocent Christian worshippers in a Bahawalpur Church.  This barbaric action was apparently inspired by the rhetoric of war between Islam and the infidels, emanating from the radical Islamists.  The carnage has given a new and violent dimension to the anti-American agitation by radical Islamic groups and brought the war in Afghanistan into Pakistani territory.  Heavy civilian casualties, the plight of hundreds of thousands of Afghans driven out from their homes as well as the use of Pakistani airbases by the American jets, have all dramatically changed the atmosphere in Pakistan over the last few weeks.  Anti-war protests have grown much bigger and more violent, while prospects of a long drawn out war has further destabilised the region.  The spillover effect of the war in Afghanistan has begun to raise serious questions about the survival of General Musharraf’s government.

            As the US-led war in Afghanistan enters its fifth week, public opinion has turned increasingly against the United States raising  doubts about the military government’s ability to control the situation.  The rising Islamic militancy in Malakand and Kohistan is ominous.  War has come to Pakistan with thousands of pro-Taliban fighters moving from Pakistan into the war zone while hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees are fleeing to Pakistan.  The growing number of Pakistanis joining the Taliban forces has exacerbated the military government’s dilemma.  While any use of force to stop the tribesmen from crossing the border may lead to an armed confrontation, continuing inaction on the other hand will weaken the government’s writ and further strengthen the opposition forces.  Any confrontation between the army and the agitators will create a very dangerous situation carrying serious consequence for the unity of the military.  The worst fear of the government is that the Taliban forces may use Pakistani territory as a rear base for protracted guerrilla warfare after they are ousted from Kabul.

            Pakistan is under constant pressure from the United States to stop the tide of the Islamic militants joining the Taliban.  Washington is also pressing the military government to seal its borders and arrest all Taliban coming to Pakistan.  American officials say that satellite images show a mass of people and vehicles going back and forth.  “We can’t be sure what they are carrying,” said one senior US official.  There are also reports quoting American officials that some rogue elements of the military and ISI are still helping the Taliban.

            Though Islamabad has reiterated that Pakistanis are not allowed into Afghanistan to fight, it is clear that the government has little control over the movement of people in the tribal belt, a semi-autonomous region that operates under its own laws in a system virtually unchanged from the days of British colonial rule.  The government admits that it is almost impossible to seal or monitor the entire 2000-kilometer border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

            The US campaign in Afghanistan has not produced any results so far and there is every danger that the US-led forces may get bogged down in the Afghan quagmire.  Despite the American bombing of the Taliban frontline positions in Mazar-i-Sharif and north of Kabul, the anti-Taliban opposition forces have not been able to make any significant advances.  Against all expectations, the Taliban government has remained united and there is no visible sign of rifts developing in the near future.  By executing Abdul Haq and other pro-Zahir Shah commanders, the Taliban have sent out a clear message that they still have control over most of Afghanistan.  “No one would like to risk their lives after what happened to Abdul Haq,” said Afghan staffers of an international relief agency.  According to reports from Kabul and Kandahar there is no panic among the Taliban.  There is business as usual in the cities despite the heavy bombing, which has also resulted in many civilian casualties.  Ironically enough, the incessant bombing has had an adverse affect as most Afghans, particularly in the Pashtun belt, have rallied around the Taliban to fight against the American forces.  The Taliban have started distributing weapons to the people and there is a danger that some of these weapons may also fall in the hands of pro-Taliban elements in Pakistan.

            In Kabul too, where the majority of the population were against the harsh Islamic regime, the situation has changed drastically over the last few weeks.  “The fear of the hated Northern Alliance taking over the capital has pushed many Afghans into supporting the Taliban,” says a political observer.  Most observers believe that the fall of Kabul to the American-supported opposition will trigger a new and even more violent phase of civil war in Afghanistan, with the emergence of new warlords establishing their own small fiefdoms.  “It will be going back to the pre-Taliban situation when Mujahideen factions were locked in war against each other,” said a relief agency official.  The continuing civil war and instability in Afghanistan will have a serious destablising effect on Pakistan. Though General Musharraf has been calling for targeted bombing for a short period, there are no indications of that happening soon.  President Bush has repeatedly warned that it is going to be a long haul.  Whether Pakistan can survive a protracted war that has already entered its own backyard is a question that has become paramount for all Pakistanis.