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Outsmarting
and outmaneuvering all the other contenders vying for the prime
minister's slot, Aziz, 55, has squeezed the maximum benefit out
of his less than five years of investment in Pakistani politics.
His financial wizardry and President General Pervez Musharraf's
implicit trust in his talent and professional skill, enabled Aziz
to by-pass the more conventional and populist routes to power. He
has been handpicked and offered the top job on a golden platter.
Only a few Pakistani politicians have been lucky enough to get this
royal treatment.
The
markets and business circles have hailed his nomination as prime
minister. The premier Karachi Stock Exchange 100-share index greeted
the news with a more than 3.4 per cent rise in a single day on June
28 - the biggest in seven months. For market players Aziz - the
prime minister - means a continuation of his economic reforms and
what they call, "business-friendly" policies.
However,
opposition politicians and many independent analysts say this nomination
has again underlined the harsh fact of Pakistani politics: that
power in this country flows through the military. The parliament
stands in the shadows.
Is
there a silver lining behind this move? Many in Pakistan are ready
to bet on Aziz in defiance of the prophecies of doom and gloom by
all shades of politicians and political analysts. They are pinning
their hopes, expectations and dreams on the concept that Aziz -
unlike the majority of politicians - is not tainted with corruption.
He has guided Pakistan's near bankrupt economy out of a minefield
and brought it to a stage where we are aiming for a higher GDP growth
of more than 6 per cent that is expected to help reduce poverty.
But
will it be possible for Aziz, who has spent most of his professional
life at Citibank and has no political base of his own, to deliver
and survive the machinations of local politics, lawmakers and their
cronies? Known for his colorful personal life, love of music, passion
for golf and art and urbane outlook, he stands in stark contrast
to the political culture dominated by feudal and tribal values.
The stakes and risks are high.
Aziz joined Citibank in 1969 in Pakistan and remained with
the bank till President Pervez Musharraf plucked him out of Citibank,
New York, soon after his bloodless October 1999 coup, to run the
country's battered economy. A graduate from the reputed Institute
of Business Administration and University of Karachi, Aziz, like
many talented Pakistanis, made his name and career abroad holding
important executive positions from Athens to Singapore to New York.
Though his peers regarded him as a brilliant banker, when he took
charge of the finance ministry, many doubted the ability of a man
accustomed to handling billions of dollars of a handful of the mega-rich
to manage the few hundred million dollars of this impoverished country
of 140 million people.
But
Aziz, whose family migrated from East Punjab at Partition, walked
Pakistan's precarious financial tight-rope with surprising skill.
He met the stringent International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions
of introducing reforms in the country's stagnant economy - thanks
to the fact that a non-elected government was in power and was able
to take a series of unpopular steps. That included the tough decision
of expanding the tax base, reducing price controls, opening Pakistani
markets for international competition, improving agricultural production
and trimming subsidies. The budget deficit was kept below 4 per
cent as the Pakistan government tried to make the best use of the
fiscal space it got as a result of the rescheduling of more than
12 billion dollars of foreign debt and billions of dollars in grant
and aid in exchange for Pakistan's cooperation in the war against
terror. For the first time in history, Pakistan completed two IMF
programmes and now the country plans to come out of fund's supervision
by the end of this year.
Drawing
on his vast network of global contacts, Aziz helped Pakistan gain
entry into foreign capital markets. A 500 million dollar Eurobond
issue provided much-needed funds for domestic development and the
government intends to test these waters again as it plans to stay
away from an IMF managed economy. Today Aziz is one of Musharraf's
most trusted lieutenants, which analysts say, places him at a far
more advantageous position then his predecessor, Zafarullah Khan
Jamali. With the military firmly behind him, Aziz will be far more
effective in decision-making and less open to blackmail and demands
of parliamentarians as well as party members. "The military
will manage state affairs for him," says a Karachi based economist
working for a Canadian-funded research organisation. "This
is the best and only surety for Aziz. He does not stand on a thin
layer of ice."
But
for many, the military's dominant role raises an ethical question:
where does democracy stand in this land of the pure and will the
new arrangement unleash a crisis that could threaten this carefully
laid applecart?
Aziz will not just be confronted with the challenge of keeping
the members of his united but fractured Pakistan Muslim League in
line, but also to deal with domestic governance, including issues
such as poverty reduction, unemployment, distribution of resources
within the provinces and terrorism. Will he succeed and survive
where so many others before him have failed, gone into exile, into
prison, or even to the gallows?
The road ahead is not a cakewalk, given the volatile nature
of domestic politics, the deep-rooted corruption, the threat of
a coup and the growing resistance by hard line Islamic parties and
militant groups, which resist modernisation and change.
But those who have worked with him during the last five
years, describe him as a tough-minded man who has come a long way
from the boardrooms of Citibank to the rough and dodgy political
labyrinth of Pakistani politics. His newest job should not daunt
him. His finance ministry colleagues say he has always kept his
cool under pressure while steering the economy away from near bankruptcy.
"He remained relaxed even in the worst of times and
during the most challenging situations. Therefore we never felt
tense," said one of his close associates. "He will ensure
that the train remains on track." 
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